routeloads.

Methodology

Where the numbers come from, how we compute them, and what they mean.

Everything on routeloads comes from one place: the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). It's public-domain data that every U.S. carrier is legally required to file — actual seats flown, actual passengers carried, actual fares sold. No logins, no estimates, no scraping. We just take the government's own numbers and make them readable.

T-100 Segment

Monthly seats, passengers, and departures on every nonstop segment a carrier flies. This is the source of load factor and capacity — how many seats went out and how many people were in them.

U.S. DOT BTS · T-100

DB1B Market

A 10% sample of all airline tickets sold, giving average round-trip fares by origin–destination market. This is the source of the average fare you see on each route.

U.S. DOT BTS · DB1B

On-Time Performance

Reported on-time arrival rates for nonstop operations by the larger U.S. carriers. This is the source of the on-time rate — the share of flights that landed on schedule.

U.S. DOT BTS · OTP

How we compute each number

Load factor

load factor = passengers ÷ seats over the trailing window. It's the single best answer to "how full does this route fly?" We show it as a percentage and color it on a green→red scale — and here, greener means emptier: a low load factor is the open seat, the upgrade, the cheaper standby. A route running near 100% is packed.

Average fare

This is the DB1B average origin-and-destination market fare, round-trip. One important caveat: DB1B is a 10% ticket sample, and it's an origin–destination figure rather than a single-segment price — so a connecting passenger's whole journey is attributed to the market, not one leg. Treat the average fare as a market signal — a sense of what a route typically costs — not a live quote for a specific flight.

On-time rate

The share of that route's nonstop operations that arrived within the DOT's on-time threshold. Higher is better, so this scale runs the other way: greener means more reliable, red means a route with a history of running late.

Open seats

open seats = seats − passengers — roughly how many empty seats a typical departure on that route carries. It's the same story as load factor, told in raw seats instead of a percentage: a useful gut-check for how much slack a route actually has.

Coverage & freshness

The data is monthly, and right now it spans 2021 through 2026 — roughly 4,460 mapped routes across 1,700+ airports. Because carriers file with the DOT on a lag, the latest complete month trails the calendar by a few months. That's normal for BTS data: it's the price of using filed, audited numbers instead of guesses. When a fresh month is published, it flows straight through.

What it doesn't tell you

This is historical monthly data, not live availability — and it's worth being clear about the edges:

That's the whole recipe — public DOT filings, a few honest formulas, and a color scale where greener means emptier, cheaper, and more reliable. Now go put it to work: